Green 4
Norm Duke
vs
Tom Baker
Everybody including myself is
going to favor Norm in this match and I hope that loosens up
Tom. Tom was just notified of two more award to add to his
Hall-of-Fame career. He was awarded the Senior Rookie and
Senior Player of the Year honors. Congrats Tom and I hope
you are able to use this confidence builders to continue
your progress this year. Tom is starting to get his game
back in shape.
Green 3
Parker Bohn III
vs
Andres Gomez
I will be watching this match
to see how these two deal with their own transitions. Andres
is getting his feet wet with his second matchplay appearance
in a row. He has unique abilities to create reaction in
broken down parts of the lane but that will not happen as
fast with nobody on his side of the lane. Parker will have
to stretch the pattern first than move off of that. I expect
ball choices to be the deciding factor here.
Green 2
Patrick Healey Jr
vs
Michael Fagan
Interesting matchup. I expect
Michael to play further right then Patrick hoping to create
better breakdown for him. If that is possible I think he can
take advantage of being able to get his ball to catch more
off hits than Patrick. If Michael moves left too quick with
nothing to throw at than the slower speed of Patrick will be
a big advantage to overcome.
Green 1
Brian Voss
vs
Robert Smith
Brian Voss is the favorite
based on the results of qualifying but his approach to
matchplay makes Brian look more like prey than an opponent.
Brian needs to shut Robert out early or he will get trapped
in the web Robert creates on the lane. I really think Robert
is the favorite in this matchup, even though Brian had the
better look in qualifying.
Blue 4
Bill O'Neill
vs
Tom Daugherty
Tom and Bill present and
interesting challenge for the lane surface. I will pick Bill
because I think he has very good ball roll for the PBA tour
environment. He doesn't have to think as much as the guy
who's ball roll reads transition as dramatically as others.
Blue 3
Randy Pedersen
vs
Patrick Allen
Randy finally got through the
challenging TQR round and made the best of it. This is one
of his first match-play rounds in quite some time. You can
never question Randy's skills as he has always been one of
the most physically talented players. This match will be
decided by who makes the right moves the quickest and that
makes Patrick the favorite because Randy will be moving to
quick. He tends to overthink
Blue 2
Tommy Jones
vs
Joe Ciccone
Joe says this has to be the
most common matchup over the last three years. He said it
seems he is paired up with Tommy almost every week. Well I
bet he isn't the only person feeling that since most titles
seem to go through Tommy as of late. This is a match
that Joe can win because of his angles. Tommy may have to
jump over and play with Joe because Joe doesn't have to move
as much as most bowlers.
Blue 1
Mike Wolfe
vs
Jason Couch
This match could well be
decided by how Mike decides to attack the lanes in the early
games. If he chooses to use the most popular line of the
week on the fresh I think his scoring pace will suffer late
while Jason's improves. Many of the right handers have
started right around 18 to 9. That choice will force him
into a deeper zone late in the match. I expect this match to
get into the later games.
Black
4
Mike Scroggins
vs
Ryan Shafer Tough
call when you don't have confidence in what is going to
happen with the lane conditions. The field has been
competing with less volume in the part of the lane than you
would think by looking at the graph and the type of surface.
If that look changes bowlers could get stuck with the wrong
ball. That being the case it would effect Ryan more. Since I
expect the lanes to play differently I will favor Mike.
Black
3
Amleto Monacelli
vs
Steve Jaros The
natural advantage goes to Amleto in this match because of
his carry. Steve is very good and adapting to a match as it
progresses. If this match progresses very far I think Amleto
will have a bigger pocket and carry. The key for Steve will
be Amleto's choice of angles. If Amleto sees the morning
conditions hooking more he might wind up using too extreme
of angles. Ball choices will be critical in this match.
Black
2
Chris Hayden
vs
Paul Fleming Paul
Fleming is matching up pretty well this year but seems to
struggle with breaks during his matches. Chris Hayden is a
much improved player from a couple years past. His
repetition is improving and he has always had a high level
of confidence. I am going to favor Paul if he starts far
enough right that he has something to go to late. Ball
changes will be key for Paul.
Black
1
Pete Weber
vs
Tommy Delutz Jr
Weber's confidence was pretty evident this week as his
arm-swing and demeanor seems to be much more relaxed. Pete
is very dangerous with that combination. Tommy is still
feeling the effects of a thigh muscle strain and the cold
morning may not be good for him. This match seems to favor
Pete but we are just waiting for TD to get hot.
Red 4
Mika Koivuniemi
vs
Brian Himmler
These two bowlers deal with
early hook exceptionally well. Mika will try to avoid
Brian's carrydown and at some point I expect Brian to try
and play Mika's burn. That will force Brian to play further
right than he did during qualifying. For Mika's sake that
should force Brian's angles and ball choices to be off. If
The middle part of the lane looks good for Brian it will be
a carry contest.
Red 3
Chris Johnson
vs
Wes Malott
This is a match that
exemplifies the difference in the way the lanes are playing
the last couple weeks. Wes's ball reaction doesn't look near
as good as it did. Chris's looks great. Chris is not
realizing any early hook and is able to create return that
others can not. Wes's ball is much more sensitive to the
front part of the lane and his making angle and ball choices
based on the front when Chris isn't seeing much of an issue
in that area. When a bowlers ball reaction is reading the
front like Wes's is. It is hard to get comfortable against
somebody's who isn't. Chris is the favorite this week. But a
difference in the front could make a big difference in the
score
Red 2
Tim Criss
Vs
W.R. Williams Jr
Tim struggled early and came
on late. Walter was just Walter he doesn't shoot bad games
and got enough breaks throughout qualifying to shoot a few
good ones. Connecting strikes has been Walter's problem as
of late. When they get on one lane I think Walters chances
go way up in this match because he won't have to change his
angles as much which should make a difference in the number
of splits in the match.
Green
Round of 8
Tom Baker
vs
Brian Voss
Another match another Hall of
Famer for Tom. These two will be in the same part of the
lane to start the match and it will be interesting to see
how they effect each others reaction. BV has had that part
of the lane all to himself so far. With BV's look it will
not be an easy one for Tom but you can tell his confidence
is growing with each round. Games 3 and 4 are going to be
the crucial transition in the match.
Blue
Round of 8
Patrick Allen
vs
Tommy Jones
Tommy is hoping to find a
better look in the early games so he doesn't get too far
behind in the early games. If he can get a game or two he
might be able to wait around until his look is better. I
don't see Tommy being able to overcome Patrick's look.
Black
Round of 8
Pete Weber
vs
Mike Scroggins I
will be interested to see the strategies in this match with
Pete. He has been bowling a lot of right handers lately and
has been able to match up in late games better. This won't
be the case in this match. It isn't like Mike has a great
look early either so both will be anxious in the early
games. I expect some early struggles with the winner being
the one who gets the most early wins.
Red
Round of 8
Walter Ray Williams Jr
vs
Mika Koivuniemi
I can hardly wait to see this
match. Everybody knows where these two will playing. This is
like two sluggers in the heavyweight division meeting in the
center of the ring and going toe toe. They aren't moving, it
just a matter of who hits harder and lasts longer.
Green
Round of 16
2
Tom Baker
vs
Norm Duke
This bracket is full of Hall
of Famers for Tommy. If things play out right he could bowl
a Hall of Famer every round. After a brief practice session
with Parker I have to think Tom is going to have his work
cut out for him. He did it last round by getting past Duke.
Tommy's ball roll is actually better than Parker's unless
that little practice session pays off expect Tommy to move
on.
Green
Round of 16
1
Patrick Healey Jr.
vs
Brian Voss
Voss's trick around 5 is
looking really good. Watching it, you would think it is too
end over end to hit but I have witnessed it enough to know
better. Nobody will be able to stay in that zone with him
and I am not seeing that area of the lane blowing up to take
advantage of. Pat's best bet is if the lanes get too tight
down lane to effect Brian's carry. I guess BV will have to
prove it to me again.
Blue
Round of 16
2
Tom Daugherty
vs
Patrick Allen
Patrick has the best look in
the house on the left. And he definitely has the best look
between these two bowlers. Tom can strike with anybody but
unfortunately he can split better than most of his
opponents. I don't expect Patrick to loose his look and I
really doubt he will split as much so I have not reason to
bet against Patrick.
Blue
Round of 16
1
Tommy Jones
vs
Jason Couch
I don't see this as being
that good of a match. I don't think Jason can stay with
Tommy when there isn't something to throw at. Hitting the
pocket shouldn't be the problem avoiding splits and carry
will be. Tommy is actually a little sloppy right now but I
think his ball reaction will get better as the match goes
along. If Jason has something to throw at then the match
flip-flops.
Black
Round of 16
2
Amleto Monacelli
vs
Mike Scroggins
Amleto is bowling very well every week. But how can anybody
say they are bowling better than Scrogs. I really think this
match will be decided by where Amleto breaks the lane down.
I don't think Mike matches up as well this week because he
rolls it a little too much. I think Amleto will come out on
top in this one as Mike searches for a ball that finishes
the turn.
Black
Round of 16
1
Pete Weber
vs
Paul Fleming I am
really concerned about Paul's ability to match up in this
match. His ball choices look like they rev too early for the
breakdown transition. I know he is good at getting slow just
like Weber but I don't think he has balls in his bag that
will carry with Weber once the lane gets blown open.
Red
Round of 16
2
Chris Johnson
vs
Mika Koivnuniemi
Chris's ball reaction has
been very good this week and in my mind he may be the
toughest opponent in this side of the bracket. Mika always
has a chance and seems to have a clear picture of what he
wants to do. It is just a matter of who the lane cooperates
with. My heart is with Mika but Chris is suppose to win this
one.
Red
Round 16
1
Rick Lawrence
vs
Walter Ray Williams Jr.
I really
like this matchup. Believe it or not I expect this to be a
matter of carry. Walter can throw it too hard for the amount
of oil that is down lane and Rick is limited with his rev
rate. This will be a matter of the bowler who can match the
combination of speed/revs and angles. I have a feeling that
Rick's speed is going to give him the advantage.
Red 1
Brian Kretzer
vs
Rick Lawrence
I don't know if this is
hard to pick because it is so early in the morning or
because these two are hard to predict. Give them the right
condition and the numbers could go way up. A little change
and they won't average 200. These are not the most versatile
players on tour but their uniqueness separates them from the
field. BK has had a very good look for two weeks in a row.
His ball roll doesn't see near as much friction in the front
and his ball speed handles the oil down lane very well.
Since Rick just snuck in I think the favorite has to be
Brian. But a little difference could mean a lot with these
two.

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