Green 4
Norm Duke
vs
Tom Baker

Everybody including myself is going to favor Norm in this match and I hope that loosens up Tom. Tom was just notified of two more award to add to his Hall-of-Fame career. He was awarded the Senior Rookie and Senior Player of the Year honors. Congrats Tom and I hope you are able to use this confidence builders to continue your progress this year. Tom is starting to get his game back in shape.

Green 3
Parker Bohn III
vs
Andres Gomez

I will be watching this match to see how these two deal with their own transitions. Andres is getting his feet wet with his second matchplay appearance in a row. He has unique abilities to create reaction in broken down parts of the lane but that will not happen as fast with nobody on his side of the lane. Parker will have to stretch the pattern first than move off of that. I expect ball choices to be the deciding factor here.
 

Green 2
Patrick Healey Jr
vs
Michael Fagan

Interesting matchup. I expect Michael to play further right then Patrick hoping to create better breakdown for him. If that is possible I think he can take advantage of being able to get his ball to catch more off hits than Patrick. If Michael moves left too quick with nothing to throw at than the slower speed of Patrick will be a big advantage to overcome.

Green 1
Brian Voss
vs
Robert Smith

Brian Voss is the favorite based on the results of qualifying but his approach to matchplay makes Brian look more like prey than an opponent. Brian needs to shut Robert out early or he will get trapped in the web Robert creates on the lane. I really think Robert is the favorite in this matchup, even though Brian had the better look in qualifying. 

Blue 4
Bill O'Neill
vs
Tom Daugherty

Tom and Bill present and interesting challenge for the lane surface. I will pick Bill because I think he has very good ball roll for the PBA tour environment. He doesn't have to think as much as the guy who's ball roll reads transition as dramatically as others.

Blue 3
Randy Pedersen
vs
Patrick Allen

Randy finally got through the challenging TQR round and made the best of it. This is one of his first match-play rounds in quite some time. You can never question Randy's skills as he has always been one of the most physically talented players. This match will be decided by who makes the right moves the quickest and that makes Patrick the favorite because Randy will be moving to quick. He tends to overthink

Blue 2
Tommy Jones
vs
Joe Ciccone

Joe says this has to be the most common matchup over the last three years. He said it seems he is paired up with Tommy almost every week. Well I bet he isn't the only person feeling that since most titles seem  to go through Tommy as of late. This is a match that Joe can win because of his angles. Tommy may have to jump over and play with Joe because Joe doesn't have to move as much as most bowlers.

Blue 1
Mike Wolfe
vs
Jason Couch

This match could well be decided by how Mike decides to attack the lanes in the early games. If he chooses to use the most popular line of the week on the fresh I think his scoring pace will suffer late while Jason's improves. Many of the right handers have started right around 18 to 9. That choice will force him into a deeper zone late in the match. I expect this match to get into the later games.

Black 4
Mike Scroggins
vs
Ryan Shafer

Tough call when you don't have confidence in what is going to happen with the lane conditions. The field has been competing with less volume in the part of the lane than you would think by looking at the graph and the type of surface. If that look changes bowlers could get stuck with the wrong ball. That being the case it would effect Ryan more. Since I expect the lanes to play differently I will favor Mike.

Black 3
Amleto Monacelli
vs
Steve Jaros

The natural advantage goes to Amleto in this match because of his carry. Steve is very good and adapting to a match as it progresses. If this match progresses very far I think Amleto will have a bigger pocket and carry. The key for Steve will be Amleto's choice of angles. If Amleto sees the morning conditions hooking more he might wind up using too extreme of angles. Ball choices will be critical in this match.

Black 2
Chris Hayden
vs
Paul Fleming

Paul Fleming is matching up pretty well this year but seems to struggle with breaks during his matches. Chris Hayden is a much improved player from a couple years past. His repetition is improving and he has always had a high level of confidence. I am going to favor Paul if he starts far enough right that he has something to go to late. Ball changes will be key for Paul.

Black 1
Pete Weber
vs
Tommy Delutz Jr

Weber's confidence was pretty evident this week as his arm-swing and demeanor seems to be much more relaxed. Pete is very dangerous with that combination. Tommy is still feeling the effects of a thigh muscle strain and the cold morning may not be good for him. This match seems to favor Pete but we are just waiting for TD to get hot.

Red 4
Mika Koivuniemi
vs
Brian Himmler

These two bowlers deal with early hook exceptionally well. Mika will try to avoid Brian's carrydown and at some point I expect Brian to try and play Mika's burn. That will force Brian to play further right than he did during qualifying. For Mika's sake that should force Brian's angles and ball choices to be off. If The middle part of the lane looks good for Brian it will be a carry contest.

Red 3
Chris Johnson
vs
Wes Malott

This is a match that exemplifies the difference in the way the lanes are playing the last couple weeks. Wes's ball reaction doesn't look near as good as it did. Chris's looks great. Chris is not realizing any early hook and is able to create return that others can not. Wes's ball is much more sensitive to the front part of the lane and his making angle and ball choices based on the front when Chris isn't seeing much of an issue in that area. When a bowlers ball reaction is reading the front like Wes's is. It is hard to get comfortable against somebody's who isn't. Chris is the favorite this week. But a difference in the front could make a big difference in the score

Red 2
Tim Criss
Vs
W.R. Williams Jr

Tim struggled early and came on late. Walter was just Walter he doesn't shoot bad games and got enough breaks throughout qualifying to shoot a few good ones. Connecting strikes has been Walter's problem as of late. When they get on one lane I think Walters chances go way up in this match because he won't have to change his angles as much which should make a difference in the number of splits in the match.

 

TV

Green
Round of 8
Tom Baker
vs
Brian Voss

Another match another Hall of Famer for Tom. These two will be in the same part of the lane to start the match and it will be interesting to see how they effect each others reaction. BV has had that part of the lane all to himself so far. With BV's look it will not be an easy one for Tom but you can tell his confidence is growing with each round. Games 3 and 4 are going to be the crucial transition in the match.

Blue
Round of 8
Patrick Allen
vs
Tommy Jones

Tommy is hoping to find a better look in the early games so he doesn't get too far behind in the early games. If he can get a game or two he might be able to wait around until his look is better. I don't see Tommy being able to overcome Patrick's look.

Black
Round of 8
Pete Weber
vs
Mike Scroggins

I will be interested to see the strategies in this match with Pete. He has been bowling a lot of right handers lately and has been able to match up in late games better. This won't be the case in this match. It isn't like Mike has a great look early either so both will be anxious in the early games. I expect some early struggles with the winner being the one who gets the most early wins.

Red
Round of 8
Walter Ray Williams Jr
vs
Mika Koivuniemi

I can hardly wait to see this match. Everybody knows where these two will playing. This is like two sluggers in the heavyweight division meeting in the center of the ring and going toe toe. They aren't moving, it just a matter of who hits harder and lasts longer.

Green
Round of 16
2
Tom Baker
vs
Norm Duke

This bracket is full of Hall of Famers for Tommy. If things play out right he could bowl a Hall of Famer every round. After a brief practice session with Parker I have to think Tom is going to have his work cut out for him. He did it last round by getting past Duke. Tommy's ball roll is actually better than Parker's unless that little practice session pays off expect Tommy to move on.

Green
Round of 16
1
Patrick Healey Jr.
vs
Brian Voss

Voss's trick around 5 is looking really good. Watching it, you would think it is too end over end to hit but I have witnessed it enough to know better. Nobody will be able to stay in that zone with him and I am not seeing that area of the lane blowing up to take advantage of. Pat's best bet is if the lanes get too tight down lane to effect Brian's carry. I guess BV will have to prove it to me again.

Blue
Round of 16
2
Tom Daugherty
vs
Patrick Allen

Patrick has the best look in the house on the left. And he definitely has the best look between these two bowlers. Tom can strike with anybody but unfortunately he can split better than most of his opponents. I don't expect Patrick to loose his look and I really doubt he will split as much so I have not reason to bet against Patrick.

Blue
Round of 16
1
Tommy Jones
vs
Jason Couch

I don't see this as being that good of a match. I don't think Jason can stay with Tommy when there isn't something to throw at. Hitting the pocket shouldn't be the problem avoiding splits and carry will be. Tommy is actually a little sloppy right now but I think his ball reaction will get better as the match goes along. If Jason has something to throw at then the match flip-flops.

Black
Round of 16
2
Amleto Monacelli
vs
Mike Scroggins

Amleto is bowling very well every week. But how can anybody say they are bowling better than Scrogs. I really think this match will be decided by where Amleto breaks the lane down. I don't think Mike matches up as well this week because he rolls it a little too much. I think Amleto will come out on top in this one as Mike searches for a ball that finishes the turn.

Black
Round of 16
1
Pete Weber
vs
Paul Fleming

I am really concerned about Paul's ability to match up in this match. His ball choices look like they rev too early for the breakdown transition. I know he is good at getting slow just like Weber but I don't think he has balls in his bag that will carry with Weber once the lane gets blown open.

Red
Round of 16
2
Chris Johnson
vs
Mika Koivnuniemi

Chris's ball reaction has been very good this week and in my mind he may be the toughest opponent in this side of the bracket. Mika always has a chance and seems to have a clear picture of what he wants to do. It is just a matter of who the lane cooperates with. My heart is with Mika but Chris is suppose to win this one.

Red
Round 16
1
Rick Lawrence
vs
Walter Ray Williams Jr.

I really like this matchup. Believe it or not I expect this to be a matter of carry. Walter can throw it too hard for the amount of oil that is down lane and Rick is limited with his rev rate. This will be a matter of the bowler who can match the combination of speed/revs and angles. I have a feeling that Rick's speed is going to give him the advantage.

 

Red 1
Brian Kretzer
vs
Rick Lawrence

I don't know if this is hard to pick because it is  so early in the morning or because these two are hard to predict. Give them the right condition and the numbers could go way up. A little change and they won't average 200. These are not the most versatile players on tour but their uniqueness separates them from the field. BK has had a very good look for two weeks in a row. His ball roll doesn't see near as much friction in the front and his ball speed handles the oil down lane very well. Since Rick just snuck in I think the favorite has to be Brian. But a little difference could mean a lot with these two.