Green 4
Rick Steelsmith
vs
Dave Traber

Dave will see too much transition to stay with Rick in the late games. Even Dave Traber's reaction will be effected by the quick transition in the middle part of the lane. Rick is smart enough to match up quickly and efficiently when the lane provides obvious hook.

Green 3
Dave D'Entremont
vs
Robert Smith

Dave is at a huge disadvantage because he is not at the top of his game and the hook spot is not far enough right. I don't see this as being a very tough match for Robert
 

Green 2
Paul Fleming
vs
Brian Kretzer

Paul reminds me of a Walter Ray Williams type of bowler. He uses too strong of a ball too long and gets hurt in late games because of it. Brian loves late games and I expect that to be the difference in this match.

Green 1
Wes Malott
vs
Pete Weber

I see this match up as one of the best of the year. They certainly proved that the last time they bowled. I do think Pete is bowling better now and with the added friction he shouldn't have any problem seeing his ball hook. I like is swing in this match.

Blue 4
Danny Wiseman
vs
Jason Hurd

Danny is seeing something he likes this week and it will be a matter of whether Jason forces Danny too deep to carry or causes Danny's ball to not hit. That is not an easy thing to do with Danny. He can make a dull ball look like plastic ball in the burn. The issue should be carry and I don't have a good feeling for Danny in this one unless he can get it over with quick.

Blue 3
Mike DeVaney
vs
Rudy Kasimakis

Who is this Rudy guy? We haven't seen him much. But then again we haven't bowled on these types of surfaces very often. Those East coast guys like the early friction spots they manipulate it very well. DeVaney seems to be struggling late more than I would have expected. He is getting better on the fresh but he needs to see the next transition and make the move quicker. Yes they are that much different.

Blue 2
Ray Edwards
vs
Mike Fagan

Finally a condition where Ray's ball actually sees friction and his roll is an advantage. But his opponent is pretty darn good and likes friction too. I don't think Ray is confident enough to win many close games right now so I don't expect Mike to have that tough of a problem.

Blue 1
Tommy Jones
vs
Chris Barnes

I want to watch this one. Chris is smart enough to play a part of the lane that Tommy can't get too. The pattern is thin enough on the gutter that it could get broken down real quick and he is good enough to hang out there until it gets playable. This may be a match where a bowler comes back on Tommy instead of the other way around.

Black 4
Ritchie Allen
vs
Chris Loschetter

I know Ritchie just made his first show on this pattern but I don't see the natural advantage he had in Medford. He is using awful dull stuff. If he can get the right ball in his hand he should still have what he had in Medford. On the other hand I think the pattern might get too deep for Chris's end over end roll to hit when Ritchie is throwing it over the hook.

Black 3
Bryon Smith
vs
Bill O'Neil

It is good to see Bryon back out here where he belongs. Bryon is always a factor in match-play and will not never back down. I love his competitive spirit but the question is whether he will be able to stay up with the quick transition Bill creates with his rev rate, track circumference and ball choices. The shot will get deep. That is when Bill might get a few more messengers. But never count Bryon out he is Mr. 7 game match.

Black 2
 

Mike Wolfe
vs
Brad Angelo

This is a case where Brad's roll is an obvious advantage. As long as Brad isn't forced too deep to effect his carry. Where Mike can stay further right. This match is one the Brad should win.

Black 1
Ryan Shafer
vs
Patrick Allen

I doubt Ryan will be challenged early enough in this match for Patrick to be able to come back. I have a lot of respect for how Patrick can follow his own transition but the pattern doesn't seem thin enough. If Ryan gets too deep to fast then the story is different.

 
 

Red 4
Dino Castillo
vs
Jack Jurek

This is the type of condition Dino can compete with anybody on. He will still need to make better shots than he has but that is a lot easier when you are more comfortable with what you are seeing.

Jack has done some good things this week and it should be a matte of how the breakdown effects his carry.

Red 3
Tom Daugherty
vs
Jeff Carter

A couple weeks ago Tom proved me wrong in both the round of 32 and 16. I am not convinced that his roll will match up on this surface as well as Jeff's will in the late games. So again I give Tom the opportunity to prove me wrong.

Red 2
Ben Laughlin
vs
Del Ballard Jr.

I really like the progress Del is making confidence wise. He knows what he has been working on is right and now he can focus on transition. His brain is working a little too fast still. He is making moves a little too early instead of trusting what he is working on is not going to flat ten if it gets off his thumb good. We will start to see the wrist loosen up after a couple victories. This should be one.

TV

Green
Round of 8
Brian Kretzer
vs
Robert Smith
(Guest Commentator Mike Wolfe)

oh, this one is tough. Kretzer's slow wheel curve is in effect and Robert can overpower anything. So I will have to take Robert on this one because of his ability to burn up a lane forcing Brian too deep because we know Brian can't play 10.

Blue
Round of 8
Mike DeVaney
vs
Mike Fagan
(Guest Commentator Mike Wolfe)

I am picking Fagan just for the fact that I don't want the guy that complains (I changed his choice of words) every week to win.

I think Fagan has the added confidence in beating Barnes and has more tools than "complain" and moan. Make special note about the guest commentator.

 

Black
Round of 8
Ryan Shafer
vs
Ritchie Allen
(Guest Commentator)

Mike wanted us to pick sides on this one, he said I could pick first. I said OK I will take Ryan. A laugh and a response -so will I- comes from Mike. Now he is grabbing for straws thinking that the lanes might break down funny and Ritchie's funky roll will match up better. Mike you obviously didn't watch Ryans look this morning.

 

Red
Round of 8
Del Ballard
vs
Dino Castillo
(Guest Commentator Mike Wolfe)

Battle of Big D.

Gotta take Del Ballard for the experience he has in this situation and his transition makes better sense. It will be easier to follow.

Somebody tell Dino this is not the High-Roller anymore.

 

Green
Round of 16
2
Rick Steelsmith
vs
Robert Smith

Not the match up Rick needs. He does not match up against these styles of bowlers very well at all. Robert effects lanes tremendously. The track gives Robert something to throw at. Rick doesn't need to help him. But what is he suppose to do to stop him.

Green
Round of 16
1
Brian Kretzer
vs
Wes Malott

I don't see anything that can happen that will help Brian in this match he will just have to hope he pushes oil to spots on the lane that will create problems for Wes. I haven't seen anybody that has been able to do it yet. The low end of the house is lower scoring than the high end because they hook earlier and hang more. hmmm! Wes may play to the right.

Blue
Round of 16
2
Jason Hurd
vs
Mike DeVaney

Very interesting match  that is sure to be over the left gutter. Nobody is going to outsmart anybody until one of them is forced to go right. The question is will they. There is that spot to the right that is playable if you break it down or if you run out of oil deep. Mike will run out of oil first. Maybe they will surprise me and stay further right early so it becomes a strike fest late.

Blue
Round of 16
1
Chris Barnes
vs
Mike Fagan

Two years from now this going to be a good match but right now Mike doesn't know how good his straight game is. I expect Chris to use the same strategy he did against Tommy. He doesn't want to get into a rev fest with Michael either. If Michael will stay with Chris early he should be able to play off that spot late. And he will once he understands just how good he is.

Black
Round of 16
2
Bill O'Neil
vs
Ritchie Allen

Bill is going to be tough this week as long as his opponent doesn't challenge his path to the track. Somebody is going to have to force his ball to slow down and not widen his target area. Ritchie can do that but to be honest I don't think he will be able to slow Bill down this week.

Black
Round of 16
1
Ryan Shafer
vs
Brad Angelo
(guest commentator Sean Rash)

I am pretty sure Brad is going to win this match. Brad can create more right and Ryan is looking for more hold. It might be different story late when some oil gets down the lane.

 

Red
Round of 16
2
Jeff Carter
vs
Dino Castillo
(guest commentator Sean Rash)

Just depends on who matches up. If Carter can get the ball to pick up in the right spot. Dino is bowling on a high. I didn't watch Jeff's match, I watched Dino's. They will both be in the middle part of the lane. I am picking Dino in 6 in fashion, without a roll-off.

 

Red
Round 16
1
Mike Machuga
vs
Del Ballard
(guest commentator Tom Baker)

This match will played on the inside part of the lane Del's favorite part of the lane. He is a 5th arrow specialist (something I am not) I have to give Machuga the edge because he has been bowling so good and Del doesn't have the transition experience the last couple years as Mike.

 

Red 1
Mike Machuga
vs
Nathan Bohr

Another learning opportunity for Nathan. I will not be watching this match to see who wins. I will be watching how Nathan approaches the match mentally and strategically.

Nathan is good but he wants to be great. Commitment to a game plan and execution through transition is what I am looking for.

Mike is suppose to win.